Black Friday Starts a Week Early for Marketers, Data Says

Much has been made about the stakes of Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM). But seasoned marketers know that the marquee weekend's big wins are often secured in the strategy sessions, brand-building messages, and customer connections forged in the weeks before. In fact, Intuit Mailchimp platform data shows that in 2023, the Friday before Thanksgiving actually marked one of the holiday season's first campaign upticks; it rang in as the eighth highest volume email send day of the entire year. Think of the intervening days as marketers' Peak Week: a high-impact, high-pressure stretch that comes after a steady, strategic build and before a thrilling (if chaotic!) race to the finish. 

To be fair, these early-bird marketers aren’t necessarily thinking ahead for their own sake; in many cases, they’re aligning their promotions with customer behavior. According to the 2024 Holiday Shopping Report from Intuit QuickBooks, 73% of consumers will have the majority of their shopping done before December, and more than 1 in 5 (23%) will even have the majority done before November. What was once a yearly marketing sprint is increasingly becoming a marathon. "Consistency is key during this season," says Tammeca Rochester of Harlem Cycle, which tends to sell more big-ticket items like retreats or gift cards during the holidays. "One email isn't enough; you have to stay consistent to break through all the clutter coming to your audience's inbox."

QuickBooks survey data says that 65% of consumers plan to shop on Black Friday or Cyber Monday this year. And in 2023, for Mailchimp customers with connected stores, about 65% of BFCM orders came from new customers, versus 35% that came from repeat customers—a testament to how this single weekend can grow a brand's customer base for the long haul. To achieve those gains, marketers often begin laying the groundwork with audiences much earlier. 

"A subscriber that has never financially invested in our brand is almost as valuable as those who have, because of word-of-mouth, the power of recommendations, and how they can help us grow," says Sabra Mohamed of CHANI, an astrology platform that counts its customers as just a fraction of the brand's overall following. In anticipation of this year’s holiday season, CHANI offered its 2024 Astro Planner to its audience for free; this annual paid product had lost much of its value by September, but it could still offer first-time buyers an idea of what to expect for the 2025 edition. "The campaign was wildly successful," Mohamed says. "Tens of thousands of people that had never actually purchased with us were now able to taste our products." The first campaign of CHANI’s subsequent 2025 rollout has already earned 110% more revenue compared to last year’s. And their biggest sale of the year—Black Friday, of course—is still on the horizon. 

Sales and discounts are a huge part of what draws consumers to the spend on that flagship shopping weekend. According to QuickBooks survey data, 91% of consumers say they’re concerned about higher costs affecting their holiday shopping this year; 64% are prioritizing shopping at stores that offer low prices and deals, and 58% are looking for coupons and promotions to save money. Meeting these expectations while maintaining healthy margins often requires a strategic, analytical approach. 

"We make about 15% of our yearly revenue during our Black Friday sale, which is often in 4 to 5 days’ time," says Tori McQuinn of Antique Candle Co. "It's competitive every year. We always A/B test and experiment before BFCM to stay ahead of the trends and gather data on what we know works."

Whether you're sending special discounts to repeat customers with a high average order size or running a win-back campaign for lapsed buyers, it can be especially valuable to leverage customer behavior for more targeted promotions. AI-powered analytics can do a lot of the heavy lifting in this department; in fact, Mailchimp data has indicated that marketers see 141% more revenue on average with AI-built predicted segments. 

"Be detail-oriented. Don't think just about one offer for everyone," advises Lina Gantar of Nuuk Digital. “Think about how you can give VIP customers a better offer ahead of time. Can you offer email subscribers a better offer than what's on the website? Can you send plain text emails that look like 1-on-1 comms from the founder? Make customers feel special."

According to a 2023 survey from Mailchimp in partnership with Edelman, 73% of customers feel more valued when they receive personalized emails. And there’s a similar sentiment worldwide. Earlier this year, Mailchimp's global Brand Trust report found that nearly half (45%) of consumers believe the future of personalisation will mean they won’t need to search for products and services—rather, that their desired purchases will be coming to them. 

It's hardly surprising that this kind of elevated customer engagement so often takes place in the inbox. According to Mailchimp's recent report The Revenue Blueprint, almost two-thirds of marketers surveyed name email as the foundation of their marketing strategy. And of those considered to be “Revenue Leaders”—a subset of Performance-Obsessed Marketers who use optimal resources, tools, and investments to drive significant growth within high-revenue organizations—89% automate nearly the entire customer journey, from initial contact to post-purchase engagement. Embracing efficiencies that allow for always-on audience engagement can be a potent year-round strategy, but the benefits can be especially visible to brands during the holiday marketing frenzy. 

"Someone might not be able to afford what we’re selling today, but if you keep them enticed, we’ll be the first brand they think of when they are," says Mohamed. Delivering consistent value to your digital community, whether they're buyers or not, is key to longevity. "We have an audience that has been so nurtured for the other three quarters of the year that when we do start becoming a bit more heavy-handed with promotions, they don't disengage," she continues. "If anything, they lean in and they purchase."