About Purchase Likelihood

To help you market to your contacts, we look at each individual customer’s purchase history and patterns and compare that to what’s normal for your store. Then, we estimate whether their likelihood to purchase again is low, moderate, or high.

In this article, you’ll learn about purchase likelihood and how to use that information to create targeted campaigns.

Things to Know

Here are some things to know about purchase likelihood.

  • This feature is available for paid accounts only.
  • To access the likelihood to purchase segmentation criteria, you must have a connected store with enough data for us to adequately categorize your customers.

View Purchase Likelihood

You’ll find an overview of your customer’s likelihood to purchase again on the Audience Overview page (beta). Likelihood to purchase again is also available to use as segmentation criteria.

Audience Overview

An overview of your customers' likelihood to purchase again is available for Audience Manager Beta participants with a connected store.

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Segmentation Criteria

Likelihood to purchase again can also be used as segmentation criteria for users with a connected store.

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About the Categories

Customers can fall into 1 of 4 general categories: new, high, moderate, and low.

Here’s an overview of what each category indicates about your customers.

Likelihood to Purchase AgainCustomer Characteristics
NewNew customers who have made their first purchase in the last 30 days.
HighCustomers who are likely to purchase again.
ModerateCustomers whose purchase activity has dropped off and who may have disengaged.
LowCustomers who are unlikely to purchase again.

To determine a customer’s likelihood to purchase again, we do some math on our end to compare averages for your store to a few customer-specific variables:

  • Customer age
    This is a simple measure of how long a person has been a customer, or the amount of time since their first purchase.

  • Time between first and last purchase
    We’ll look at the time between a customer’s first purchase and their most recent, or last, purchase.

  • Time since most recent purchase
    This is the time since a customer last made a purchase from your store.

  • Frequency
    This variable looks at how many times a customer made a purchase.

Our model takes all these variables into consideration to make a prediction about each customer. Exactly when or why we move a customer into a different category depends on all of these variables. For example, one customer may be moved into the Low category after 8 weeks without buying anything, while another may remain in the High category even though more time has passed since they last purchased.

Next Steps

Ready to get started? Learn how to create and send to a segment, or take a look at all the segmentation options available to you.


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