Looking for help with your list?
Mailchimp lists are now called audiences. They include the same data and functionality as before, along with valuable new insights about your contacts. As we introduce this change over time, you’ll notice fewer places where we still say list. Learn more about this change.
To help you market to your contacts, we look at each individual customer’s purchase history and patterns and compare that to what’s normal for your store. Then, we estimate whether their likelihood to purchase again is low, moderate, or high.
In this article, you’ll learn about purchase likelihood and how to use that information to create targeted campaigns.
Things to Know
Here are some things to know about purchase likelihood.
- Depending on your plan and purchase data, you may not have access to purchase likelihood data. To find out what features are included in each plan, check out our pricing page.
- To access the likelihood to purchase segmentation criteria, you must have a connected store with enough data for us to adequately categorize your customers.
View Purchase Likelihood
You’ll find a summary of your customer’s likelihood to purchase again on your audience dashboard. Likelihood to purchase again is also available to use as segmentation criteria.
Navigate to the Audience tab to see an overview of your customers' likelihood to purchase again. From there, click any purchase likelihood segment you want to target, and we'll help you start a new campaign.
Likelihood to purchase again is also available as a segmentation option in the contact table and various campaign builders.
About the Categories
Customers can fall into 1 of 4 general categories: new, high, moderate, and low.
Here’s an overview of what each category indicates about your customers.
|Likelihood to Purchase Again||Customer Characteristics|
|New||New customers who have made their first purchase in the last 30 days.|
|High||Customers who are likely to purchase again.|
|Moderate||Customers whose purchase activity has dropped off and who may have disengaged.|
|Low||Customers who are unlikely to purchase again.|
To determine a customer’s likelihood to purchase again, we do some math on our end to compare averages for your store to a few customer-specific variables:
This is a simple measure of how long a person has been a customer, or the amount of time since their first purchase.
Time between first and last purchase
We’ll look at the time between a customer’s first purchase and their most recent, or last, purchase.
Time since most recent purchase
This is the time since a customer last made a purchase from your store.
This variable looks at how many times a customer made a purchase.
Our model takes all these variables into consideration to make a prediction about each customer. Exactly when or why we move a customer into a different category depends on all of these variables. For example, one customer may be moved into the Low category after 8 weeks without buying anything, while another may remain in the High category even though more time has passed since they last purchased.