To help you market to your contacts, we look at each individual customer’s purchase history and patterns and compare that to what’s normal for your store. Then, we estimate whether their likelihood to purchase again is low, moderate, or high.
In this article, you’ll learn about purchase likelihood and how to use that information to create targeted campaigns.
Things to Know
Here are some things to know about purchase likelihood.
View Purchase Likelihood
You’ll find an overview of your customer’s likelihood to purchase again on the Audience Overview page (beta). Likelihood to purchase again is also available to use as segmentation criteria.
An overview of your customers' likelihood to purchase again is available for Audience Manager Beta participants with a connected store.
Likelihood to purchase again can also be used as segmentation criteria for users with a connected store.
About the Categories
Customers can fall into 1 of 4 general categories: new, high, moderate, and low.
Here’s an overview of what each category indicates about your customers.
|Likelihood to Purchase Again||Customer Characteristics|
|New||New customers who have made their first purchase in the last 30 days.|
|High||Customers who are likely to purchase again.|
|Moderate||Customers whose purchase activity has dropped off and who may have disengaged.|
|Low||Customers who are unlikely to purchase again.|
To determine a customer’s likelihood to purchase again, we do some math on our end to compare averages for your store to a few customer-specific variables:
This is a simple measure of how long a person has been a customer, or the amount of time since their first purchase.
Time between first and last purchase
We’ll look at the time between a customer’s first purchase and their most recent, or last, purchase.
Time since most recent purchase
This is the time since a customer last made a purchase from your store.
This variable looks at how many times a customer made a purchase.
Our model takes all these variables into consideration to make a prediction about each customer. Exactly when or why we move a customer into a different category depends on all of these variables. For example, one customer may be moved into the Low category after 8 weeks without buying anything, while another may remain in the High category even though more time has passed since they last purchased.